How a spate of terrorist attacks by a ‘resurgent’ Daesh threaten to push Syria deeper into chaos

Analysis How a spate of terrorist attacks by a ‘resurgent’ Daesh threaten to push Syria deeper into chaos
Thirteen years of civil war and sanctions, the twin earthquakes of February 2023, and the spillover of the Gaza conflict have traumatized and impoverished the Syrian people. (AFP/File)
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Updated 06 August 2024
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How a spate of terrorist attacks by a ‘resurgent’ Daesh threaten to push Syria deeper into chaos

How a spate of terrorist attacks by a ‘resurgent’ Daesh threaten to push Syria deeper into chaos
  • Five years since its territorial defeat, there are fears Daesh could be about to stage a comeback in Iraq and Syria
  • Economic hardship, national fragmentation, and spillover from Gaza could create conditions for a new insurgency

LONDON: Just when Syrians thought they could finally put the horrors of the past decade behind them, the first half of 2024 bore witness to a series of savage attacks by an Islamist group that many hoped had been vanquished for good.

Daesh claimed responsibility for 153 terrorist attacks in Syria and Iraq in the first six months of this year, according to US Central Command — already surpassing the 121 attacks reported over the entirety of 2023.

At its peak in 2015, the terrorist group controlled roughly 110,000 sq. km of territory — a third of Syria and 40 percent of Iraq, including major cities like Raqqa in Syria and Mosul in Iraq, according to the Global Coalition to Defeat Daesh.

It also commanded an army exceeding some 40,000 militants and had at its disposal a formidable arsenal captured from local forces. However, after an international effort, Daesh met its territorial defeat in the village of Baghuz, eastern Syria, in March 2019.




Al-Hol camp in Syria's northeastern Al-Hasakah Governorate. (AFP/File)

Five years on, and on the 10th anniversary of the group’s 2014 blitzkrieg of Iraq and Syria, there are fears that Daesh could be about to stage a comeback, at a time when the world’s attention is distracted by crises elsewhere.

On July 22, Geir Otto Pedersen, the UN special envoy for Syria, told the Security Council that the “resurgence” of terrorist activities posed a significant threat to Syrian civilians, especially amid a deepening, country-wide humanitarian crisis.

Highlighting that Syria “remains in a state of profound conflict, complexity and division,” he said the country is “riddled” with armed actors, listed terrorist groups, foreign armies and front lines.

Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies and the Farzaneh Family Center for Iranian and Arabian Gulf Studies at the University of Oklahoma, told Arab News the group’s lack of territory meant its militants had to content themselves with low-level insurgent activity.

“(Daesh) has remained a threat in Syria and the number of people that ISIS has killed and the number of attacks in 2024 has risen compared to last year,” said Landis, using another acronym for the group.

Daesh “is also trying to reconstitute itself, although it remains without territory and must carry out hit-and-run attacks and assassinations,” he added.

Ian J. McCary, deputy special envoy for the Global Coalition to Defeat Daesh, confirmed in March that the threat of Daesh continued to lurk in Syria and Iraq.

“We continue to see a real threat in Iraq and Syria, where ISIS at one point controlled a region with a population of approximately 10 million people,” he told the Washington Institute.

“We have seen the emergence of ISIS affiliates — the so-called ISIS Khorasan inside Afghanistan, which poses a clear external threat — and in Sub-Saharan Africa where several ISIS affiliates have emerged.”




Daesh leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi. (AFP/File)

Established in early 2015 as the regional branch of Daesh in South-Central Asia, the Islamic State — Khorasan Province, also known by the acronym IS-K, initially focused on transferring fighters from Afghanistan and Pakistan to Syria, according to the Warsaw-based Center for Eastern Studies.

The group has a history of attacks that extended far beyond Afghanistan, including one that targeted the Crocus City Hall in Russia’s capital Moscow on March 22 this year, killing at least 133 people and injuring more than 100.

In January, IS-K also claimed responsibility for twin blasts in Iran that killed at least 100 people and injured 284 more during a memorial for the slain Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani.

In Syria, the group has staged attacks in central and northeastern Syria, targeting both the armed forces of the Bashar Assad regime and the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces in the country’s semi-autonomous region.

Throughout much of 2020 and 2021, Daesh sleeper cells in the northeast were building an intelligence network and raising money through theft, extortion and smuggling, according to a 2022 report by the International Crisis Group.

However, analysts are particularly concerned about northeast Syria’s prisons and detention camps, where militants and their families have been held since their capture in 2019.




Women and children evacuated from Baghouz, a Daesh holdout in 2019, arrive in Deir Ezzor. (AFP/File)

Some 50,000 Daesh suspects and their family members are currently held by the SDF across 27 detention facilities, CNN reported in June. With local forces overstretched, many inmates have either escaped or been released.

According to Landis, the SDF “has amnestied a lot of detainees and converted many death sentences to 15-year prison terms. This means that many detainees are being freed from prisons in northeastern Syria.”

Human Rights Watch reported last year that there remain some 42,000 foreign Daesh supporters and their family members, the majority of them children, from 60 countries detained in northeast Syria.

The New York-based monitor said the children in those camps are “held in conditions so dire they may amount to torture, and face escalating risks of becoming victims of violence or susceptible to recruitment by (Daesh).”

Local authorities warn these detention camps have become breeding grounds for radicalization, potentially contributing to a Daesh revival. Such a reemergence would be devastating for a country already brought to the very brink.

Thirteen years of civil war and sanctions, the twin earthquakes of February 2023, and the spillover of the Gaza conflict have traumatized and impoverished the Syrian people.

In early 2024, the UN said some 16.7 million people in Syria — nearly three-quarters of the population — required humanitarian assistance. This came at a time when international aid budgets were already stretched to their limit.




Some 50,000 Daesh suspects and their family members are currently held by the SDF across 27 detention facilities. (AFP/File)

According to a July report by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, the Humanitarian Response Plan for Syria remains significantly underfunded, with just $871 million of its $4.07 billion budget secured as of July 25.

Ramesh Rajasingham, director of the OCHA Coordination Division, described the situation in Syria as the “worst humanitarian crisis since the start of the conflict,” made worse by ongoing clashes among various armed actors in northeast Syria.

“Another reason that (Daesh) has grown is because of the infighting in northeast Syria between the Arab tribes and the SDF and Kurdish militia,” said Landis.

“The chaos and internecine fighting in northeast Syria have been replicated by infighting inside Syrian government-controlled territory and northwest Syria, which is ruled by opposition militias under Turkish sponsorship and protection.

“The general poverty in Syria and declining humanitarian aid combined with ongoing sanctions is having a bad impact on stability.”

He added: “So long as Syria is divided and suffers from a shrinking economy, (Daesh) will find recruits in Syria. Police forces in all the various regions have been weakened by the lack of funds, bad government, and poverty.”

Syria has experienced a sharp economic decline since 2022, according to the World Bank’s Syria Economic Monitor for Spring 2024. The report projects that the real gross domestic product will contract by 1.5 percent this year, exceeding the 1.2 percent decline of 2023.




Bashar Assad’s Syria has experienced a sharp economic decline since 2022. (AFP/File)

According to UN figures, more than 90 percent of the Syrian population lives below the poverty line, and more than half lack access to nutritious food, resulting in more than 600,000 children suffering from chronic malnutrition.

Despite growing concerns of a Daesh resurgence in the region, Karam Shaar, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy, does not foresee the terrorist group regaining control over large areas in Syria and Iraq as it did a decade ago.

“Because of the deterioration in living conditions and the fact that the grievances of many Sunni Muslims in that region remain unanswered, there will always be an appeal for (Daesh),” he told Arab News.

“Yet, I don’t think they could ever control large swathes just because of the current situation on the ground and them being too weak to do so.”

One reason for this is that Daesh’s “modus operandi has actually changed,” he said. “They are now a borderline criminal group as opposed to being a terrorist group. The distinction between the two is whether there is a political message to their activities or not.”

He said Daesh leaders “know full well that if they decide to control large areas, there would be a serious response from multiple actors on the ground, including the Kurds backed by the US, the Syrian regime backed by Russia and Iran.”

In Iraq, the group may be deterred by “the Iraqi army, also backed by the US,” he added.




Daesh has targeted both the armed forces of the Bashar Assad regime and the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces. (AFP/File)

Both Shaar and Landis believe a redeployment of foreign troops to eliminate Daesh insurgents is unlikely. “I don’t see this happening given the current circumstances,” said Shaar.

Landis concurred that “more foreign troops are unlikely to be sent to Syria” to combat a resurgence. “Turkiye is seeking a deal with Assad. The US is likely to want to withdraw from Syria in the future, not increase its military position there.”

And far from involving itself in fighting Daesh, “Israel is likely to continue, if not increase, its regular attacks on state military forces in order to decrease their capabilities” as part of its shadow war with Iran and its proxies.

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Canada to pull children of diplomats out of Israel, Canadian Press reports

Canada to pull children of diplomats out of Israel, Canadian Press reports
Updated 5 sec ago
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Canada to pull children of diplomats out of Israel, Canadian Press reports

Canada to pull children of diplomats out of Israel, Canadian Press reports
  • Global Affairs Canada said it has approved the temporary relocation of the diplomats’ children and their guardians to a safe third country
  • Canada on Saturday warned citizens to avoid all travel to Israel, citing the ongoing regional conflict and unpredictable security situation

The Canadian government said on Wednesday it has decided to pull the children and guardians of its diplomats out of Israel, amid fears of a widened conflict in the Middle East, the Canadian Press reported.
Israel’s tensions with Iran and Hezbollah have fanned fears of a broader conflict in a region already on edge amid Israel’s assault on Gaza which has killed tens of thousands and caused a humanitarian crisis, including widespread hunger.
There has been an increased risk of escalation into a broader Middle East war after the killings of Palestinian Islamist group Hamas’ leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran and of Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut drew threats of retaliation against Israel.
Global Affairs Canada, in a statement cited in the Canadian Press, said it has approved the temporary relocation of the diplomats’ children and their guardians to a safe third country. It added that diplomats stationed in Ramallah in the West Bank and in Beirut do not have dependents living with them.
Canada on Saturday warned citizens to avoid all travel to Israel, citing the ongoing regional conflict and unpredictable security situation. It also urges its citizens to not travel to Gaza and the West Bank.
The embassies in Tel Aviv and Beirut and the representative office to the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank “all remain fully operational and continue to provide essential services to Canadians,” the Canadian government said in the statement cited by the Canadian Press.
The latest bloodshed in the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict was triggered on Oct. 7 when Palestinian Islamist group Hamas attacked Israel, killing 1,200 and taking about 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.
The Gaza health ministry says that since then Israel’s military assault on the Hamas-governed enclave has killed nearly 40,000 Palestinians while also displacing nearly the entire population of 2.3 million and leading to genocide accusations that Israel denies.

 


Tunisian president sacks PM amid growing discontent over recurring water and electricity crisis

Tunisian president sacks PM amid growing discontent over recurring water and electricity crisis
Updated 08 August 2024
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Tunisian president sacks PM amid growing discontent over recurring water and electricity crisis

Tunisian president sacks PM amid growing discontent over recurring water and electricity crisis
  • Hachani's dismissal comes exactly a year after he was tapped to replace Najla Bouden

TUNIS: Tunisian President Kais Saied sacked Prime Minister Ahmed Hachani and appointed Social Affairs Minister Kamel Maddouri as his replacement, the Tunisian presidency said in a statement late on Wednesday.
Hachani was named as Tunisia’s prime minister in August last year. A few hours before he was dismissed, Hachani said in a video message that the government had made progress on a number of issues despite global challenges, including securing the country’s food and energy needs.

Hachani's dismissal comes exactly a year after Saied appointed him to replace Najla Bouden as prime minister.

The dismissal comes amid popular discontent with the recurring water and electricity outage crisis in many parts of the country. While the government says that Tunisia is suffering from a continuous drought that has led to a quota system in water distribution, Saied sees the water cuts as a conspiracy ahead of presidential election and says that the dams are full.
The agriculture ministry says that the dam level is extremely critical and has reached 25 percent.
Saied announced his candidacy for the presidential elections in October amid widespread criticism from the opposition, human rights groups and candidates for restricting and intimidating competitors to pave the way for him to win a second term.


Fatalities in Israeli attack include head of Hezbollah’s anti-tank rocket unit

Fatalities in Israeli attack include head of Hezbollah’s anti-tank rocket unit
Updated 07 August 2024
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Fatalities in Israeli attack include head of Hezbollah’s anti-tank rocket unit

Fatalities in Israeli attack include head of Hezbollah’s anti-tank rocket unit
  • 2 killed, 7 injured, says Israeli army

BEIRUT: Two people were killed — one a civilian and the other, according to the Israeli army, the head of Iran-backed Hezbollah’s anti-tank rocket unit — and seven others injured on Wednesday in renewed Israeli hostilities in several towns in southern Lebanon.

An Israeli drone targeted a motorcycle in the town of Jouaiyya at noon, and a passing car was hit, injuring those inside.

The emergency operations center at the Ministry of Health reported that two people were killed, Hezbollah member Hassan Fares Jeshi and a civilian named Mohammed Hassan Shoumar, while four others were injured.

The Israeli army said: “Hassan Fares is the commander of Hezbollah’s anti-tank rocket unit.”

Israeli artillery shelling and air raids continued on border towns known for their loyalty to Hezbollah. These attacks hit the towns of Blida, Tayr Harfa, Khiam, Jebbayn, Chihine, Majdelyoun, Naqoura, Zibqin, Chaqra, Baraachit, Halta, Kounine, Mhaibib, and Kfarkela.

The emergency operations center said that “phosphorus artillery shelling targeted the town of Shebaa, causing a citizen to suffer from suffocation, requiring hospitalization.”

Hezbollah responded by targeting “the Raheb site and the Jal Al-Alam site with artillery shells, and the Malikiyah site with missile weapons.”

Israeli warplanes breached the sound barrier for the second successive day over Beirut.

The National News Agency in Lebanon reported that Israeli aircraft did the same in two waves over the cities of Sidon and Jezzine, and various parts in the south of the country, with activists on social media sharing footage of planes breaching Lebanese airspace.

Inhabitants of Beirut and dozens of towns in the Mount Lebanon region had experienced severe panic on Tuesday as Israeli warplanes broke the sound barrier at low altitude, causing a loud boom.

Border villages adjacent to the Blue Line in the western and central sectors suffered hours of tension later in the day with the Israeli army firing flares, while Hezbollah carried out nine operations against Israeli military sites.

Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah said in a speech on Tuesday that a response to last week’s assassination of the group’s prominent military leader Fuad Shukr was “inevitable.”

The Israelis are also anticipating the response of Hezbollah and Iran to the assassination of Hamas’ political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran just hours after Shukr’s death in the southern suburbs of Beirut.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said: “The Israeli army is constantly developing its defensive and offensive capabilities.”

Meanwhile, leaflets were dropped on Wednesday in predominantly Druze regions, especially in the Choueifat area, bearing pictures of the children who were victims of the Majdal Shams attack in the occupied Golan, which killed 12 people. These carried the words: “We will avenge them, Hezbollah.”

Israel has accused Hezbollah of shelling the soccer field in Majdal Shams, but Hezbollah strongly denies responsibility for the attack, while Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt has declared his support for the Iran-backed group.


Rights groups condemn Iran’s ‘abhorrent’ execution of protester

Rights groups condemn Iran’s ‘abhorrent’ execution of protester
Updated 07 August 2024
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Rights groups condemn Iran’s ‘abhorrent’ execution of protester

Rights groups condemn Iran’s ‘abhorrent’ execution of protester

PARIS: Iran faced condemnation from human rights groups Wednesday over its execution of a man convicted of killing a Revolutionary Guard in 2022 protests, with activists saying his confession had been obtained by torture.

Gholamreza Rasaei, in his mid-thirties, is the 10th man executed by Iran in connection with the months-long protests that erupted in September 2022 after the death in custody of Mahsa Amini. The Iranian Kurd had been arrested for an alleged breach of the country’s strict dress code for women.

Rasaei was executed in prison in the western city of Kermanshah on Tuesday after being convicted of killing the Guards colonel, according to the Mizan Online website of the Iranian judiciary.

Human rights groups have repeatedly accused Iran, which they say executes more people annually than any nation other than China, of using the death penalty against protesters without due legal process in a bid to intimidate their sympathizers.

Rasaei, a member of the Kurdish ethnic minority and follower of the Yarsan faith, was executed in secret with neither his family nor his lawyer given prior notice and his family then forced to bury his body in a remote area far from his home, Amnesty International said.

“Iranian authorities have carried out the abhorrent arbitrary execution in secret of a young man who was subjected to torture and other ill-treatment in detention, including sexual violence, and then sentenced to death after a sham trial,” said Amnesty’s deputy director for the Middle East and North Africa, Diana Eltahawy.

She said the execution was another instance of Iran using the death penalty as a “tool of political repression to instil fear among the population.”


Over 1,000 UK troops ready to evacuate nearly 16,000 Britons from Lebanon amid fears of war escalation

Over 1,000 UK troops ready to evacuate nearly 16,000 Britons from Lebanon amid fears of war escalation
Updated 07 August 2024
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Over 1,000 UK troops ready to evacuate nearly 16,000 Britons from Lebanon amid fears of war escalation

Over 1,000 UK troops ready to evacuate nearly 16,000 Britons from Lebanon amid fears of war escalation
  • Hundreds of troops have been put on alert in the UK and are ready for deployment to the region if necessary
  • Military personnel were in the process of being deployed to provide operational support to UK embassies in the region

BEIRUT: The UK government has kept more than 1,000 British troops on high alert and ready to evacuate nearly 16,000 Britons currently in Lebanon amid growing fears of an all-out war, the BBC reported on Wednesday.
In response to the UK Foreign Office’s warning that the Middle East situation could deteriorate rapidly, preparations are being made in case British citizens need to be evacuated from Beirut.
The Foreign Office renewed its call for Britons to leave Lebanon on Saturday, while confirming that preparations were underway to help with any necessary evacuation as hundreds of troops had been sent to Cyprus. The UK already has a significant military presence there.
Foreign Secretary David Lammy told the House of Commons last week that there were about 16,000 British nationals in Lebanon.
Meanwhile, hundreds of troops have been put on alert in the UK and are ready for deployment to the region if necessary.
According to Saturday’s Foreign Office statement, military personnel were in the process of being deployed to provide operational support to UK embassies in the region, although the number of troops involved was not mentioned.
Meanwhile, Sky News reported on Wednesday that hundreds of soldiers, Royal Marine commandos, sailors and aviators had already been moved forward to bolster a key Royal Air Force base in Cyprus, which would act as a hub in any evacuation mission.
RAF Typhoon fighter jets already stationed there were involved last April in a mission against an Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel.
A Royal Navy destroyer, HMS Duncan, and a landing ship, RFA Cardigan Bay, are already in the Eastern Mediterranean. RAF helicopters have also been placed on standby.
Tensions have been growing across the Middle East since the Hamas attack on southern Israel on Oct. 7.
Hostilities between Israel and its neighbors have escalated following the death of Hamas’ political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week, in an attack for which Iran blamed Israel.
Haniyeh’s assassination came hours after Israel killed Iran-backed Hezbollah’s senior commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut.
Iran and Hezbollah have vowed “severe” retaliation against Israel.