Could the rising price of gas cost Biden the presidency?
https://arab.news/6z47p
Last month’s Memorial Day holiday set a record for travel by car in the US, with about 38 million Americans hitting the road for the holiday weekend. I was one of those 38 million Americans traveling and getting stuck in traffic for hours, which meant that, in addition to fraying the nerves, a lot of gas was used over that weekend.
With the perception in this country that high gas prices affect presidents and doom election campaigns, the stakes are high and the Biden administration is feeling the heat of gas prices as President Joe Biden seeks reelection. A February Moody’s Analytics study found that a surge in gas prices could cost President Biden the election in November. The report explained that “forecasting oil prices is especially difficult, and if prices move up much more than anticipated, the damage to Biden’s reelection bid will quickly mount.” The agency predicted that, “if prices surge close to $4 per gallon, former President (Donald) Trump will win the election.”
As the presidential election is still months away, the White House was prompted to act fast to lower the price of gas for Americans and avoid a potential backlash against the president that could doom his reelection chances. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre announced two days before the holiday that, “with Memorial Day weekend and the start of the summer driving season around the corner, the Biden-Harris Administration is taking action to lower gas prices with the sale of 1 million barrels of gasoline from the Northeast Gasoline Supply Reserve.” She explained that this action was in addition to the “historic releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and the largest-ever investment in clean energy.”
Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm explained that, “by strategically releasing this reserve in between Memorial Day and July 4th, we are ensuring sufficient supply flows … at a time hardworking Americans need it the most.”
But the Republicans were not having it. While they were attacking the president for the high gas prices, they also attacked him for releasing the reserves to lower the prices. The Republicans believe that the president is doing this only for his reelection campaign. Rep. August Pfluger accused Biden of “pulling another political move out of his dirty hat.” He said that the president is “frantically trying to lower gas prices to increase his poll ratings.”
Gas prices inched up this spring, with a gallon of gas costing an average of $3.60, according to AAA, and it is higher in the Northeast and on the West Coast than in the rest of the country. Analysts also believe that, although the release of 1 million barrels of gasoline from the reserves will “move the needle,” it will not lower gas prices by enough.
The perception that oil prices determine the results of elections and doom presidents is supported by some research, but oil and gas experts caution that there are other factors to take into account. A 2016 study by Political Psychology found that, when gas prices go up, a president’s approval rating goes down. And ClearView Energy Partners said that its “models show a meaningful ... inverse correlation over more than four decades between presidential approval ratings and real gasoline prices.”
Republicans are complaining that the Democrats are draining the reserves that are meant for emergencies only.
Dr. Amal Mudallali
Axios discussed the effect of the rise in the price of crude oil on the markets and gasoline prices because of the Middle East crisis. It referred to RBC Capital Markets’ note that “the run up in prices has sparked discussions about a revived White House energy diplomacy effort aimed at securing an easing of OPEC cuts this June.”
The Biden administration tried, after the start of the Ukraine war and before the 2022 midterm elections, to rein in gas prices to avoid voters’ wrath. It released more than 180 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in March 2022. Analysts say the reserve is now at its lowest level in about four decades. The US is trying to replenish its reserves amid complaints from Republicans that the Democrats are draining the supplies that are meant for emergencies only. Presidential adviser Amos Hochstein said in early May that the US has “sufficient supply of oil” in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve “to address any kind of concern in the economy if we need it.”
But despite the efforts of the administration, experts believe that the current inflation and the public’s negative perception of the economy, combined with the rise in gas prices, will definitely impact November’s elections. Randa Fahmy, a former associate deputy secretary of energy in the Bush administration, told Arab News that the “rise in gas prices will affect the election results and most certainly favor Trump.” She explained that “most Americans are viewing the American economy with a negative lens and part of that is the cost of consumer goods, including gas and groceries. The Americans are blaming the president for the sluggish economy and they are hoping that Trump will come back and fix it.”
Another analyst, Roger Diwan, vice president of commodity insights for S&P Global, believes that “gasoline prices are rarely a determinant of a presidential vote, despite the legend.” He added that the price of oil’s “supposed importance for Biden’s election prospects is more myth than reality.” However, he also pointed out that “the administration is very wary of inflation in general and the impact it is having on purchasing power, and more importantly on interest rates and Fed policy. This is a real concern, and gasoline prices play in that context.”
It is true that many factors will play a role in Biden’s reelection campaign and will affect the president’s chances, from his handling of the economy to how he is responding to the crisis in the Middle East and the Ukraine war, as well as his age. The Biden campaign is aware of all these factors, but it does not want the price of gas to add to his woes in November. Six months is a long time in politics and, as Diwan said, “of course any shock between now and the election, including the oil prices, would be detrimental for a sitting president.”
Last week’s guilty verdict by a New York court against Trump raised the hopes of Democrats and the president’s campaign that the election might now flip in favor of the president, regardless of how high gas prices soar. This might be a very optimistic outlook for the Democrats, but in volatile election campaigns like the one that is currently underway, anything can happen.
- Dr. Amal Mudallali is a consultant on global issues. She is a former Lebanese ambassador to the UN.
